What Labour’s victory in UK election means for the Middle East

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Keir Starmer’s first official briefing as prime minister after a landslide election victory is set to be held in a secure room with intelligence chiefs on the security threats facing the UK, one that could define Labour’s return to government.

The Middle East will play a significant role in that closed meeting, analysts and diplomats have told The National, with both opportunities and threats at the table, including the growing fears of war between Hezbollah and Israel.

Gaza will clearly be a key issue but also one in which the new administration could provide impetus for a deal, experts have said.

Iran will continue to prove a challenge, potentially an ever increasing one with its developing nuclear weapons programme as well as the possibility of a Donald Trump presidency that could release “trigger happy” Republicans on to the Middle East.

Foreign reshuffle

His first major foreign policy act may well be to replace expected foreign secretary David Lammy with a more experienced hand, a Labour insider told The National.

“Many people in and around government think that it would be pretty unwise to keep him in post and Labour should really think about shifting it to someone who is has a more nuanced view of the Gaza conflict, not a view that’s going to lead to anything disastrous,” the former adviser said.

That someone may well be former international development secretary Douglas Alexander, although this is strongly denied by Labour.

“The question is what talents Starmer chooses to draw on as Labour have been out of power for so long, that it’s front benches are a little bit short of real world experience,” said former ambassador to Yemen, Edmund Fitton-Brown.

“You’ve got people like Douglas Alexander who could be used that way especially if Starmer anticipates that the UK is going to face a number of difficult decisions in foreign policy arena and face them fairly quickly.”

Lebanon looms

Whoever might be foreign secretary, the speed at which world events develop could be lightning fast.

“Unless we’re extraordinarily lucky, we’re going to face some kind of blow up between Israel and Hezbollah and it’s not going to be pretty,” said Mr Fitton-Brown.

If that happens, then the Houthis will ramp up their Red Sea attacks, as will Iran via its proxies.

But more challenging will be whether Mr Starmer unequivocally backs Israel and the repercussions that might result from that among his pro-Palestinian MPs. In its manifesto, Labour said it would work to recognise Palestine a part of a renewed peace process.

Despite an outstanding majority, Labour was dented in its heartlands with independent candidates standing on a Gaza platform making in-roads.

Gaza outcomes

If the Gaza conflict is resolved then war with Lebanon recedes, yet current hopes of a ceasefire are distant.

But the new Labour administration has the opportunity to seize the initiative on an issue that has witnessed a “vacuum of Western leadership” since the Hamas October 7 attacks, said Dr Sanam Vakil, of the Chatham House think tank.

A “dedicated envoy” with the clout that former Foreign Secretary David Cameron brought to the job, such as David Miliband, a former foreign secretary, could be one appointment.

“Britain certainly has an opportunity to lead the way, bringing together western partners working with countries across the region on Palestinian statehood and Israeli security,” said Dr Vakil. “And there’s some great ideas but there should be some greater co-ordination and alignment between Washington, Whitehall and Europe on how they’re going to move things forward.”

The potential return of Donald Trump should provide the incentive for the UK government to be “more robust and engaged” in finding a rapid solution, the academic added.

Michael Stevens, of the Rusi think tank, believed that the first six months of a Starmer premiership “are going to be defined in the Middle East” in finding a solution to Gaza.

The pitfall would be is that if he is “not seen to be on the right side” by his large grouping of pro-Palestinian backbenchers, he will feel increased political pressure.

While there would be pressure for Labour to follow through on its commitment to recognise a Palestinian state, Mr Fitton-Brown argued that Mr Starmer was unlikely to follow the “gesture politics” of other European states.

Two state principle

Dr Michael Milshtein, head of Palestinian studies at Tel Aviv University, urged the new Labour government to understand that a two state solution cannot “really be implemented today”.

“It should be a ‘two state principle’, which is actually separation, and that is the thing London should demand from Israel.”

He added that Mr Starmer could help assist in the normalisation of relations between Israel and the Arab world that “could be very helpful”.

Trump card

All Labour’s foreign policy initiatives could be turned on their heads with the possible return of Trump to the White House next January.

Republican hardliners within that administration will be “much more trigger happy”, said Mr Fitton-Brown, speaking from New York.

“They will look at the Middle East and say, ‘we’re going to start showing people who’s boss and with Trump that’s going to include things like assassinating the new equivalent target of people like Qasem Soleimani [the former IRGC commander].”

Mr Stevens suggested that a Trump administration’s policy on Iran will “turn very hawkish, very fast” especially with Iran continuing their uranium enrichment capabilities to “pretty threatening levels”.

There was little chance of a nuclear deal, in part because the Iranians did not trust the US system to honour one, given that Mr Trump dumped the last deal.

From Labour’s perspective it was a question of would they contain Iran with sanctions or engage with it with an economic relationship, which he deemed unlikely.

Dr Vakil said for Labour to have “a greater portfolio of engagement” across the region “because there are a number of interconnected conflicts that haven’t really been resolved”.

Instead these had been “contained” but unless areas such as Sudan, Syria and Libya were addressed they could significantly worsen.

Gulf economy

Dr Vakil said that the Conservative government, had been too focused on a “very commercially based relationships” with the Gulf that reflected its “inward facing outlook” post Brexit.

“The Gulf remains our biggest economic focus, and probably the largest focus of diplomatic activity, whether that’s through sending ministers or prioritising a free-trade agreement,” she said.

Britain should also be working with the Gulf states “to support their security concerns” and play a “bridging role” in the Iran relationship, she added.

But more importantly it could play a broader role in supporting Gulf security as “what’s ultimately missing is a regional security framework and architecture” which was the “space that Labour could step up and into”.

Another quick win for Labour would be to reinstate the Middle East and North Africa ministerial post that was axed without explanation by Boris Johnson in 2022.

Updated: July 05, 2024, 7:16 AM