Ukraine-Russia latest: Second Russian region evacuated due to ‘Ukrainian activity’ – as Kyiv ‘seizes battlefield initiative’

Speculation is rife as to the aims of the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region – and the potential incursion into the Belgorod region we reported on this morning (see 6.13am post). 

Our security and defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke suggests there are reputational and strategic aims for Kyiv. 

“I’m sure they’re doing this to try to reverse the narrative that they’re losing the war slowly,” he says. 

“The Ukrainians have been losing territory – not dramatically, but slowly – and there was this sense that Ukrainians can’t win, so they’ve launched this offensive to try to give the Russians something to worry about… and to create an enclave inside Russia that the Russians have got to divert troops from elsewhere on the front to deal with it, which I’m sure they will.”

He suggests that Ukraine will not be able to hold the territory for more than month, as he expects Russia to send its best units. 

However, Ukraine is not only trying to distract Russia or impress allies, but outright change minds in the US. 

“They want to change the dynamic of the argument in America,” he says, so they are not seen as a “gallant loser” who will have to give up territory should a new Washington government aggressively pursue settlement talks. 

NATO allies and other pro-Ukrainian nations are concerned that Donald Trump, should he win the election in November, will force Ukraine into accepting harsh peace terms 

Finally, Clarke suggests Ukraine could be looking to strategically seize territory before the winter sets in again.

“Both sides are trying to prepare the frontlines for the winter,” Professor Clarke says.

“Come mid-late October, it won’t be possible to move around so easily – you can still fight in the winter, but you can’t spread out. 

“You’ve got to travel on the roads because the fields are so wet or they’re covered in snow, and if you travel on roads, then you’re very vulnerable to air attack. 

“So this attempt by Ukraine… is to establish a better position and maybe hold on to it during parts of the winter.”

Watch: Ukrainian tanks ‘destroyed’ in Russia