Harris rocketed into the race but can she defeat Trump?

Two months ago, Kamala Harris was crowned as the Democratic presidential nominee at a jubilant national convention in Chicago.

For thousands of party faithful, she was the electoral saviour, replacing an 81-year-old incumbent who seemed incapable of defeating Donald Trump and winning another term.

But even then, senior party strategists told me they worried Democrats were overconfident about her path to victory. Now, as election day looms and anxieties grow, it seems their concerns were well-founded.

There is no doubt that Harris enjoyed a surge of momentum, and an instant and significant boost in the polls compared to President Joe Biden, who was lagging far behind Trump. Yet it appears she was winning back those who normally vote Democratic anyway, but who had worried about Biden and his age.

For victory, Harris needs to attract voters from beyond the Democrats’ base, while holding together the fragile coalition that helped Biden win in 2020.

The latest polls show a race that has tightened in recent weeks and is now essentially a tie.

Worrying for Democrats is that Trump has gained ground in the crucial “blue wall” states that offer Harris her clearest path to victory – Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – as well as among black and Latino voters.

Although the race is neck-and-neck in the key swing states, poll numbers are within the margin of error. In other words, they could be wrong.

But Harris’s criticism of Trump, her Republican opponent, has become much darker in the last few days. At the convention, she laughed at Trump, dismissing him as an “unserious man” and “weird”. Now she is calling him a “fascist” and “increasingly unhinged and unstable”.

Her original message of wanting to bring “joy” has turned to one of fear – warning of what she says are the dangerous consequences of a second Trump term.

Polling suggests Harris is likely to win the popular vote. But that won’t be enough. She has to win key battleground states to win in the electoral college.

But in recent weeks as I’ve travelled through most of those states, the reservations many voters still have about Harris – a woman they feel they still don’t know enough about – have been clear.