Fresh Israeli strikes hit Beirut on eve of 7 October commemorations

Frank Gardner
Security correspondent

Image source, EPA

For days now, much of
the Middle East has been metaphorically holding its breath.

More than five days have elapsed since Iran carried out a
massive ballistic missile attack on Israel – in retaliation, it said, for Israel’s
recent assassinations of the political leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas.

After Tuesday’s attack Israel immediately vowed to make the Islamic Republic
‘pay a heavy price’. So why the delay? And when and how will Israel strike back?

The delay is partly down to deliberations, both within the Israeli
military and political establishment and also with Israel’s close ally, the US.
These are about not just the targeting – ranging from oil installations, to
Revolutionary Guards bases, to ballistic missile factories, to nuclear research
facilities – but also on the likely effect and Iran’s response.

The last thing
the White House wants is another full-scale war that embroils US forces just a
month before a presidential election. Nor does it want to see oil prices spike,
which would not play well at the pumps with US voters.

Timing-wise, many had expected Israel’s counter-strike to happen as
soon as the Jewish New Year holiday ended on Friday. Others expect it on
Monday, marking one year since Iran-backed Hamas militants carried out their
raid into southern Israel.

The only certainty seems to be that a strike is
coming.