Election – live: Sunak ‘fears losing own seat’ as poll predicts Labour landslide

The Techne survey puts Labour on course for a 272-seat majority:

Sean O’Grady looks at the history of the ‘supermajority’ and the probable numbers now:

Wales and two English regions could be left with no Conservative MPs come Friday, according to YouGov, with the Labour Party on course for a 431-seat landslide.

YouGov polled 47,751 adults in Britain between June 19 and July 2 before making the forecast, which suggests the Conservatives could win just 102 seats.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, defence secretary Grant Shapps and justice secretary Alex Chalk are among the prominent Tories set to lose their seats according to three MRP polls, which look at constituency-level results as well as the national picture.

More in Common has found counting will end with Labour on around 430 seats, while Survation’s model – a survey of 34,558 respondents between June 15 and July 2 – suggests Labour’s tally could stretch to between 447 and 517.

Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer have each warned against voting in the other party as they made their final pleas to voters ahead of the polls opening in the morning.

Prime minister Mr Sunak insisted Thursday represented a “pivotal moment” for the country’s future, as he claimed Labour would “wield their unchecked power” to increase taxes should they secure a “supermajority”.

“Mark my words — they are coming for your pension, your home, your car. You name it, Labour will tax it. Your vote matters, vote Conservative today,” he said.

Labour leader Sir Keir said the UK “cannot afford” five more years under the Conservatives, adding Britain can “begin a new chapter” under his party.

“The choice today is clear. Between a changed Labour Party that stands ready to restore politics to service and rebuild Britain. Or a Tory party that crashed our economy, left public services in ruin, and now wants to give us Liz Truss 2.0 with more unfunded spending promises,” he said.

Sir Keir Starmer has said keeping his teenage children out of the limelight is something he owes them.

The Labour leader vowed to be “fiercely protective” of them if the family moves into 10 Downing Street.

On the campaign trail, he said: “I don’t want to overly talk about my children because I don’t want to bring them into this – that’s the very thing I’ve been trying not to do.

“Look, it’s not easy if you’re 16 and 13-and-a-half to go through big changes in your life if that’s what happens, and so, you know, they’re understandably at an age where this is very impactful on them, which is why I’ve been so fiercely protective of them for many years now and will continue to try to be so.”

Labour is ready for government and being in opposition has been “the least productive nine years of my life”, Sir Keir Starmer has said.

The Labour leader said on the flight to his final campaign stop: “I’m confident that we’ll be ready. I’m not going to pretend it’s not going to be difficult… ready for government, nothing is going to be easy, almost everything is in a pretty poor state, but we have to be ready for it and I’m confident we will be.

“So while we have not been getting ahead of ourselves, genuinely, we have been preparing hard on the basis that this needs to be hitting the ground running on day one, which is what we intend to do.”

Asked whether he was nervous before polling day, Sir Keir told reporters: “I can’t tell you how frustrating opposition is, it’s been the least productive nine years of my life.”

He said he had drawn inspiration from sitting in the same seat as England manager Gareth Southgate on his flights to and from Scotland.

“It’s fantastic to be sitting in his seat,” he said. “I didn’t realise until we were on it earlier that it was the England team plane, so it’s fantastic to sit in it. I do draw inspiration.

“But just as every time – you may have noticed a football theme to the campaign – every time we have come out the tunnel onto the pitch, this is a boyhood dream.”

Nigel Farage led crowds in a chant of “we want our country back” as he said the election was the “tip of the iceberg” for Reform.

The crowd booed when the Reform UK leader referenced Rishi Sunak, referring to him as “slippery Rishi”.

He said the Conservatives had promised lower taxes and reduced immigration in the last four manifestos, “so why the hell should we believe them on the fifth?”

He added: “For all of us that voted Brexit, for everybody that helped (the Conservatives) win that 80-seat majority under Boris Johnson in 2019 they have betrayed our trust and they deserve to lose the election.”