UK election results live: Labour set for landslide win, exit poll shows

We’ll be bringing you every twist and turn throughout the night, as well as expert analysis and commentary.

• From 10pm: see the results in full as they are confirmed

Though it is very early days, it is clear that Reform UK is performing very well in Labour’s heartlands (Max Kendix writes).

In Houghton & Sunderland South, what was a 16 per cent Brexit Party vote in 2019 has become a 29 per cent Reform UK vote. In Blyth & Ashington, a 9 per cent Brexit Party vote in 2019 has become a 27 per cent Reform UK vote. And in Sunderland Central, a 12 per cent Brexit Party vote has become a 27 per cent Reform UK vote.

That does not mean, however, that those votes are coming directly from people who would have otherwise voted Labour. Many voted for Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019 but switched to Reform, pushing the Tories down to a distant third place.

The rise of Reform UK shows “potential” for a centre-right coalition to be built, Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, has said.

Although very insistent that the Conservatives cannot accept someone as “clumsy and offensive” as Nigel Farage, Baker did not want to rule out the possibility of a Conservative-Reform coalition: “The challenge for the next leader will be how to deliver a centre-right party and policy platform which appeals to the obvious coalition voters who are there for the taking.”

He said that the party must maintain its classically liberal values: “If the Conservative Party doesn’t stand for freedom, then it stands for nothing.”

Rishi Sunak will announce his resignation as Conservative Party leader on Friday morning, the political commentator Tim Shipman has said.

He told Times Radio: “My understanding, though, is that Rishi Sunak, who should hold his seat, will announce that he’s resigning as the leader of the Conservative Party tomorrow morning [Friday], and that he will say that he’s going to stay on until such a time as a leader has been selected.”

Shipman added that the party will then have to decide whether to launch a leadership contest straight away or draw it out to announce a new leader at the party conference in October. Potential candidates could include Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat and Penny Mordaunt — provided they hold their seats tonight.

The Liberal Democrats have declared victory in the first 12 seats — more than it won in the entire 2019 election.

A source for the party called them “Davey’s dozen”, adding they were “the first 12 of many wins we’re expecting tonight. From the West Country to Greater Manchester, the map is being painted gold as Liberal Democrats sweep to victory in the Conservative Party’s former heartlands.”

The seats declared by the party as victories are Torbay, North Cornwall, Yeovil, Eastleigh, Wimbledon, Woking, Guildford, South Cambridgeshire, Cheadle, Hazel Grove, Wokingham and Lewes.

Jeremy Corbyn at his local polling station in Islington, north London, today

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Jeremy Corbyn looks like he is on course for a narrow victory in Islington North (Patrick Maguire writes).

A Labour source at the count said there could be as few as 1,500 votes in it. The exit poll says the result is too close to call.

Robert Buckland, the former justice secretary, has lost his seat to Labour’s candidate Heidi Alexander in Swindon South.

Alexander won more than 21,000 to Buckland’s 12,000, with Reform on just over 6,000. Alexander is returning as an MP after six years, having given up her Lewisham East seat to work for Sadiq Khan as deputy London mayor for transport between 2018 and 2022.

Elected MP in 2010, she held several front-bench posts under Ed Miliband and became shadow health secretary for Jeremy Corbyn, but was the first shadow minister to resign after the 2016 referendum. In leadership votes, she backed Andy Burnham in 2010 and 2015, and Owen Smith in 2016.

One minor casualty of the night could end up being the phrase “Portillo moment” (Tom Whipple writes).

Since 1906, just 32 cabinet ministers have suffered electoral defeat while holding office — of which Michael Portillo in 1997 is the most famous. With so many at risk, could these soon be called Truss moments? Or Hunt moments?

Among those 32 ministers, there is no chancellor of the exchequer. Most pollsters believe that will change tonight — with Jeremy Hunt fighting a rearguard action against the Liberal Democrats in Godalming & Ash.

He can perhaps take some comfort, though, that if he loses he won’t actually be the first chancellor to be deposed at the hands of popular outrage. Walter de Stapledon, England’s 14th-century finance minister, also lost the confidence of the electorate. Without a clear democratic lever for removing him, they burnt his house down, beheaded him with a bread knife and sent his head to Queen Isabella of France. So it could be worse.

Daniel Finkelstein, the Times columnist and Conservative peer, said a lot of Tories would be “quite relieved” to be the main party of opposition.

But he hinted that Nigel Farage may regret his unexpected victory, telling Times Radio: “Interesting that Reform is projected to have 13 seats by tonight, that’ll be a cause of great joy in Reform UK headquarters.

“But it’s 12 more MPs than Nigel Farage really wants. Because now he’ll have a battle for the steering wheel. And within a year to two years, these 13 MPs won’t look as unbridled a source of joy as it looks right now.”

Lord Mandelson, the New Labour architect, told Times Radio that the exit poll result was a “miracle”.

He told How to Win an Election: “I think it’s a miracle because it’s never happened before, because no party so far behind has ever overtaken such an electoral deficit and climbed so far up such a steep cliff-edge as Starmer’s Labour Party has just done.

“No party has, as we have done, gone backwards in 2019, backwards in 2015, having lost power in 2010, and then just in 2024 catapulted into this extraordinary landslide victory. I mean, let’s assume that the exit poll is out by a few, but even so, it’s an extraordinary result and needs to say, I am an extremely happy boy.”

Ahead of the election there was a flood of so-called MRP polls which attempt to predict the result in great detail (Joey D’Urso writes). All pointed to a Labour landslide.

The exit poll projects a landslide too, but Labour’s seat total of 410 is lower than any of the MRP polls predicted, and the Conservative seat total of 131 is higher.

Nevertheless the exit poll points to a brilliant night for Labour and a terrible one for the Conservatives.

For the third time this evening, Reform have pulled in a very strong second place in traditional Labour heartlands.

Lewis Atkinson, the Labour candidate, won with 16,852 votes, followed by Chris Eynon for Reform on 10,779 votes.

It represents a swing of almost 8 per cent from Labour to Reform, as the Conservatives crashed to third.

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has said no party has a “divine right to votes” as he suggested the Tory’s defeat was partly explained by the decision to ditch Boris Johnson.

When asked if it was the “original sin” to get rid of Johnson, he told the BBC: “People do vote for a leader. Voters expect the prime minister they have chosen to remain the prime minister and for it to be the voters who decide when that person is changed.

“I think the fundamental problem was that in this election we were treating our base for granted and that is always a problem. Our base was peeling off to Reform and we have no divine right to votes.”

Rees-Mogg added that he will have to “wait and see” if he will be re-elected for his seat in North East Somerset, where Labour have a 53 per cent chance of victory according to the exit poll.

After the early results of Blyth & Ashington and Houghton & Sunderland South which were held by Labour, the next hour could see the first Conservative losses of the night.

At 12.15am Swindon South, which had a Conservative majority of over 6,000 votes in 2019, will declare. The exit poll is pointing to a Labour gain.

The Tory chairman Richard Holden’s new seat of Basildon & Billericay is also expected to declare at about the same time. Despite a Conservative majority of 20,000 in 2019 this is deemed too close to call.

Broxbourne in Hertfordshire is also due at about 12.30am. It has been held continuously by the Conservatives since its creation in 1983, with a majority of 19,000 in 2019. The exit poll has this as a likely Labour gain.

Bridget Phillipson was re-elected for her seat in Houghton & Sunderland South

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And now a little bit more from Bridget Phillipson, the first MP to be elected tonight.

Speaking after more than doubling her majority from 2019, the shadow education secretary said: “Tonight the British people have spoken. And if the exit poll this evening is again a guide to results across our country, as it so often is, then after 14 years the British people have chosen change.

“They have chosen Labour and they have chosen the leadership of Keir Starmer. Today, our country, with its proud history, has chosen a brighter future.

“The British people have decided that they believe, as Labour believes, that our best days lie ahead of us — hope and unity, not decline and division. Stability over chaos.”

In 2014, Alex Salmond dubbed Dundee the “Yes City” as it recorded the highest proportion of support for Scottish independence at the referendum (Kieran Andrews writes).

The SNP has dominated the area electorally since 2007 but Labour added it to a list of target seats towards the end of the campaign.

Senior figures across both parties believe it will be a very tight battle in the new constituency of Dundee Central, and a Labour win would send shock waves across Scottish politics.

“We could be in for a long night,” said one source amid early suggestions it may be close enough to lead to a recount.

Read the full story

One of the candidates set to win for Reform has been suspended from the party and would serve as an independent if elected (Max Kendix writes).

Robert Lomas said asylum seekers had it “in their DNA to lie” and that “black people of Britain” were “grifting the race card” and should “get up off your lazy arses” and stop acting “like savages”.

He was removed from the party on Saturday after Nigel Farage was confronted by the comments on BBC Question Time.

The exit poll suggests that there is a 99 per cent chance of Reform winning in Barnsley North. Dan Jarvis, the incumbent Labour MP, is the shadow minister of state for security.

William Hague has described the predicted results as “catastrophic” for the Conservative party.

The former party leader told Times Radio: “When you compare it to any previous election, even the one that I fought in 2001 when we got 166 seats, it’s a pretty catastrophic result.

“If that is the result… that would of course be a catastrophic result in historic terms for the Conservative Party.”

He added: “And one of the things on my mind has been, since the Conservatives have been likely to lose the election for some time… can they form a viable opposition?”

Ian Lavery has been elected as the Labour MP for Blyth & Ashington with more than 20,000 votes, followed by Mark Peart for Reform with more than 10,000 votes.

Maureen Levy, for the Conservatives, received 6,121 votes.

Lavery, who won 20,030 votes, secured a majority of almost 10,000 on a turnout of 53 per cent.

Reform UK appear to be hurting Labour as much as the Conservatives in terms of seats, according to the exit poll (Max Kendix writes).

If the exit poll is born out, Reform UK will win 13 seats, far higher than most polls expected.

The seats of Bassetlaw, Great Yarmouth, Clacton, Boston & Skegness, Barnsley South, Barnsley North, and Hartlepool could all fall to Reform.

The latter three constituencies are traditional Labour territory — and would unseat Stephanie Peacock, Dan Jarvis and prevent the election of Jonathan Brash as the Labour MP in Hartlepool.

Angela Rayner told the BBC the exit poll was encouraging

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Angela Rayner, the deputy Labour leader, said the exit poll was “encouraging” but that she was “not counting my chickens until the results come in” (Charlotte Alt writes).

She told the BBC: “The nine years I’ve been an MP, I’ve not been able to effect change because we’ve been in opposition. The ability and the opportunity to serve the British people and bring about the change they are desperate for would be a privilege for me but I’m not counting my chickens until we’ve got those results coming in.”

According to data collected by the party itself, Labour is “on a knife edge” in a number of seats, Rayner added.

Reform UK have come second in the seat of Bridget Phillipson, the shadow education secretary.

Sam Woods-Brass received 11,669 votes compared with 18,837 for Phillipson in Houghton & Sunderland South.

The Conservatives fell to third with just over 5,000 votes.

Bridget Phillipson after winning the Houghton & Sunderland South constituency

OWEN HUMPHREYS/PA

Labour hold the seat of Sunderland South with 18,837 votes for Bridget Phillipson.

If the exit poll is accurate, then this will be Labour’s third-biggest election win ever (Tom Calver writes).

The 410 seats it is forecast to win is just shy of the 2001 and 1997 elections, when Tony Blair won 412 and 418 seats respectively.

Sir John Curtice has said Britain is about to see one of the most “interesting and unprecedented” elections in electoral history (Max Kendix writes).

The polling expert said the Tory performance has been severely hampered by Reform. He said: “Much of the damage to the Conservative Party tonight is being done by Reform, even if it is the Labour Party that proves to be the beneficiary.

“Although this looks like an election where Labour is going to get a landslide in terms of seats, it does not follow necessarily that Labour has got a landslide in terms of votes.”

There were cheers at the Big Fat Greek restaurant in Clacton-on-Sea where Reform UK is holding its election night party as the exit poll was revealed, predicting 13 seats (Constance Kampfner writes).

If that turns out to be the result, or even close to it, it would be by far the best night for any party led by Nigel Farage at a general election.

The Reform leader gave gathered supporters an impromptu address.

“It’s been amazing,” said Farage, speaking into a microphone in front of a large screen broadcasting the poll. “We’ll see what happens but if that’s the result that would be a massive first step for this — I’m going to call it a movement — a political party is only part of what we’re all about.

“This is a movement to represent ordinary folk, the silent majority. So look, that looks to me to be very good news. Thanks all for being here, let’s enjoy the evening.”

The exit poll would represent the SNP’s worst election result in 14 years with the nationalists losing to Labour in Scotland for the first time since 2010 (Kieran Andrews writes).

If the cash-strapped party crashes into fifth place behind Reform, from its current position of third, it will lose significant amounts of money and visibility at Westminster. Momentum will also swing behind Labour in its bid to win back control of the Scottish parliament in 2026.

Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister, who some nationalists blame for planting the seeds that the party’s problems have grown from, admitted the projection showed there were “clearly big issues” for the SNP.

Ballot papers in Glasgow

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Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former leader of the Conservatives, and Steve Baker, former minister of State for Northern Ireland, are both calculated to have less than 1 per cent chance of winning their seats (Charlotte Alt writes).

According to the BBC’s calculations based on the exit poll, Grant Shapps, former defence secretary, is estimated to have just a 6 per cent chance of winning his seat. Jeremy Hunt’s chance is 19 per cent, Penny Mordaunt’s is 25 per cent and Jacob Rees-Mogg’s is 47 per cent.

The BBC also calculated that Labour is expected to have a 100 per cent chance of gaining 110 Conservative-held seats.

Exit polls take place at about 144 demographically representative polling stations across the country, involving tens of thousands of voters.

Each person is asked to fill in a replica ballot and place it in a replica ballot box. In theory, this confidentiality means they are likely to be as truthful as possible.

While exit polls are relatively accurate, some have been better than others in recent years. In 2015, the exit poll did not predict a Conservative majority, despite being more accurate than opinion polls at the time. In 2017, it accurately forecast the Conservatives as the largest party but not that it would be a hung parliament.

But in 2019, the exit poll predicted a Conservative majority of 86 seats, almost bang on the final margin of victory.

The exit poll, conducted on behalf of Sky News, BBC and ITV, also suggests a strong performance by smaller parties.

The Liberal Democrats are predicted to win 61, up from the 11 seats they won in 2019. Reform UK is expected to win 13 seats while the Green Party is on 2.

In Scotland the SNP is expected to be reduced to 10 seats from 43 at the last election.

At the last election in 2019, Boris Johnson won 43 per cent of the vote and Labour under Jeremy Corbyn won 32.1 per cent.

The exit poll is projected on to BBC Broadcasting House in London

OLI SCARFF/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

With a majority of 170, Starmer looks on track for a similar majority to the one that swept Tony Blair to power in 1997, when he had a majority of 179. It is also a larger landslide than the 145-seat majority for Clement Atlee’s Labour in 1945, and the 144 seats that secured a second term in office for Margaret Thatcher in 1983.

If correct, the exit poll predicts the Tories won’t sink below their worst-ever performance in a general election. Instead, they are forecast to match the 131 seats they were left with in 1832.

For weeks a succession of polls have spelled doom for the Tories. Tonight, those polls appear set to become reality (Steven Swinford writes). On any metric, the Tories are on for one of the bloodiest nights in their electoral history. Records are set to fall like dominos.

Over the next few hours a succession of Tory big beasts will be defenestrated. And after all of it Sir Keir Starmer will emerge with an extraordinary mandate. What he does with it — and how far he is prepared to go to fulfil his pledge to change Britain — remains to be seen.

Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win the election with a predicted majority of 170, the exit poll has predicted.

The first result of the night is expected to be Blyth and Ashington, in Northumberland.

Although the name of Blyth is familiar from the shock first gain by the Conservatives in the 2019 election, more of this new seat originated in Wansbeck, which Labour narrowly held. Its largest town, Ashington, will be the most populous in the new seat, while 55 per cent of Blyth Valley has actually gone into Cramlington and Killingworth.

Blyth is a North Sea port, while Ashington is an ex-coalfield community known for sporting heroes such as the footballing Charlton brothers and more recently the cricketer Mark Wood.

The incumbent MP, set to be comfortably re-elected, is Ian Lavery, MP for the now-abolished Wansbeck since 2010.

Lavery was the former president of the National Union of Mineworkers, succeeding Arthur Scargill in 2002, and was the Labour Party chairman under Jeremy Corbyn between 2017 and 2020. He left school to become a gravedigger and was an NHS mental health nursing assistant for 28 years.

• When are the exit polls announced? Hour-by-hour results timings

Rishi Sunak has given his No 10 chief of staff, Liam Booth-Smith, a peerage and a knighthood to the deputy prime minister, Oliver Dowden (Aubrey Allegretti writes).

The prime minister handed honours to his top team in Downing Street, as well as other Tory grandees and cabinet ministers in the list, announced less than an hour before polls close in the general election.

Peerages were awarded to Theresa May, the former prime minister, and Sir Graham Brady, the long-serving chair of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers.

Other Tories given peerages were Chris Grayling, the former cabinet minister; Alok Sharma, president of the Cop26 summit held in Glasgow; and Craig Mackinlay, a former Tory MP who lost all his limbs to sepsis.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer also put eight former Labour MPs into the Lords, including Harriet Harman.

The “dissolution honours” list is published when parliament is dissolved before a general election.

Will there be a Tory wipeout? The much-discussed Labour “supermajority”? Even, perhaps, a Conservative win?

Here are six scenarious for what could unfold over the next 24 hours — and what it would mean for the next parliament.

The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, could lose his seat

TAYFUN SALCI/ZUMA PRESS WIRE/ALAMY

Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt … even Rishi Sunak could be at risk. Will he become the first incumbent prime minister in history to lose their seat at an election?

Laurence Sleator runs the rule over the senior Tories in most danger.

After six weeks of claims, counterclaims, stunts and controversy the politicians have run out of time to make their case to the people.

But when will we know the general election result, what are the key seats to look out for and which big names will have 2024’s Portillo moments?

Read Oliver Wright’s hour-by-hour guide.